Jim Willie

The rising long-term USTreasury Bond yield has captured attention. The breakout chart for the 10-year Treasury was pointed out here when it rose over 3.1%, hardly a high level. In the first week of May, a target of 3.5% was cited, one easily surpassed. It zoomed to 3.75%, enough to create some waves in the stock market distracted and preoccupied by nonsensical Green Shoots talk on the psychological side and by falsified bank balance sheets on the accounting side. Bigtime stress has come to the USTreasury complex, a story difficult to mask and conceal, since it is at the epicenter of the credit markets. Only on Wall Street can we hear lunacy of less bad economic statistics (framed in sophisticated second derivative arguments) amidst an absolute cavalcade of miserable news on the jobs front, home foreclosure front, and home price front. So the unemployed workers, dispossessed homeowners, and insolvent households will lead the nation on a recovery, while credit approval is much more strictly applied even to the creditworthy among us? Doubtful! Only on Wall Street can we hear of the banks undergoing a healing process when huge credit asset writedowns are replaced instead by convenient 'Credit Value Adjustments' as booked profits on their books.

The trend is clear for those with open eyes. The official bond auctions will continue relentlessly, probably well over $100 billion per month, for perhaps twenty months at least. Worse, the USGovt federal deficits will be much bigger than estimated. Here is a sobering fact. The USGovt tax revenues are down 35% year over year. For the first time in US history, the tax collection month of April 2009 was a net negative month. Expect the USTBond supply pressures to build, not reduce. My conclusion is clear. PURE MONETIZATION WILL SOON BE A REGULAR QUARTERLY PROMISE. IF NOT, THEN A USTBOND DEFAULT THREAT LOOMS NEAR ON THE HORIZON, OR A POWERFUL SUDDEN STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE WILL ENSUE. A monetization commitment forestalls a USTBond default at a later date.

Meanwhile, the economic impact of this unremedied crisis will slowly be recognized. Watch the job losses, which continue in huge numbers. Watch the home foreclosures, which continue in accelerating numbers. Watch the national home prices, which continue in steady declines. Recall that the USEconomic recovery that began in 2001-2002 was built upon a housing bubble as a foundation. The burst of that bubble is absolutely not a completed process. The national insolvency will take its toll on USTreasurys as a certain reflection. The debt downgrade (imminent, scheduled, expected, who cares its label?) of the UKGilts two weeks ago should have awakened the world to the perception of the USGovt debt as Third World debt paper. The government finances of the United Kingdom are no better and no worse than those of the United States. The global reserve status of the USDollar and USTreasury, the greater size of the USEconomy, these only guarantee that the impact of the US fiasco have broader shock waves. The fiasco is tied to the USGovt committed debt being transformed into debt securities, the USTreasury Bonds. It is a gigantic hairball. It is like a rattle snake swallowing a goat.

SPOTTING THE USTREASURY BLACK HOLE

The USTreasury Bond supply (skyrocketing) is growing much faster than the rising demand. The untold story is that demand is rising in stride to take the rising bond supply, FOR NOW. A rising USTBond long bond yield does not mean necessarily that money exits. Price is determined as demand meeting supply. The rising bond supply will be continuing, not just for a month or two, but for a year or two or three, maybe four. Projected USGovt federal deficits are due to occur for as far as the eye can see. Bond analysts knew that big problems would result. They have begun. Huge USGovt debt commitments ensure a skyrocket of continued USTBond supply. It is sucking in funds all over the financial markets, like a Black Hole. The stock market is at growing risk for its available funds. The primary dealers have the ability to put pressure on fund managers of a wide variety. Those managers will be urged to purchase more bonds, to alter their allocation ratios, and to respond to government pressures. Some will be lured to earn future favors. The Dow Jones Industrial stock index and the S&P500 stock index have begun to stall, after quite a run powered by short covering, relaxation of accounting rules, and widespread talk of early sightings of recovery evidence. The gargantuan outsized USTreasury Bond auctions must find funds to feed the beast, and the stock market is a nearby target. The great Black Hole of USTBond issuance and sale has the potential to draw the entire stock market into its vortex. The conclusion is simple, and the USFed must respond. The $1 trillion monetization MUST BE REPEATED, and even become a quarterly event. Refusal by the Treasury and USFed to monetize could result in painful stock market declines, the effects from which the public observes and understands well. Their pain usually results in hue & cry, and if not addressed, panic.

Volumes could be written about General Motors, dubbed recently Govt Motors. The illegal trampling of their bondholders is well covered. Their executives just requested $15 billion for walking around money during the bankruptcy hearing that began on Monday. Actually it is for continued operating costs. So AIG is the basket case 'Ward of the State' in the financial sector. So Fannie Mae is the basket case 'Ward of the State' in the mortgage & housing sector. Now General Motors is the basket case 'Ward of the State' in the industrial sector. Here is a wrinkle that few have considered. The issue arose in the 2005 near death experience suffered by GM. To confuse matters, the GM corporate bond resolution might cause a firestorm. My guess is that 5x the volume of CDSwaps are in circulation to insure against default of their outstanding corporate bonds true volume. The orderly resolution of CDSwaps might cause a powerful unwanted rally in GM bonds, even though dead. An embarrassing situation perhaps is coming. The resolution of Lehman Brothers corporate bonds was highly disruptive. GM has much greater debt volume, $172.81 billion to be exact. Since 2005, the Powerz have attempted to let GM bonds expire and roll over into more controllable securities. It could become wild.