Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Home prices post record 18% drop

The 20-city S&P Case-Shiller index has posted losses for a staggering 27 months in a row.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices posted another record decline in October, falling 18% compared with a year earlier, according to a closely watched report released Tuesday.

The 20-city S&P Case-Shiller index has posted losses for a staggering 27 months in a row. In October, 14 of the 20 cities set fresh price decline records.

"The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March 2004 levels," says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.

Sunbelt cities suffered the most, but most of the country is watching home values fall. Home prices in Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco all fell more than 30% on a year-over-year basis. Miami, Los Angeles and San Diego recorded year-over-year declines of 29%, 28% and 27%, respectively.

"As of October 2008, the 20-City Composite is down 23.4%," said Blitzer. "In October, we also saw three new markets enter the 'double-digit' club."

Atlanta, Seattle and Portland each reported annual rates of decline of about 10%.

"While not yet experiencing as severe a contraction as in the Sunbelt, it seems the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic South is not immune to the overall demise in the housing market," Blitzer added.

Deteriorating environment

Many of the factors affecting home prices turned strongly negative this fall, according to Blitzer.

"October was really the first month to feel the full brunt of the credit crunch," he said. "Up until the Lehman Brothers [bankruptcy filing on September 15], everyone felt relatively optimistic."

Plus, in many of the free-falling cities the majority of real estate sales consist of distressed properties such as foreclosed homes and short sales. These houses tend to sell at a steep discount to the rest of the market, and when they account for a large proportion of all sales, they can exaggerate the depth of price declines.

Of course, foreclosures continue to be a big problem as well. In October alone, nearly 85,000 people lost their homes to foreclosure, adding vacant inventory to an already overburdened market.

Home sellers should not expect prices to improve any time soon, according to Pat Newport, a real estate analyst for IHS Global Insight.

"I expect it's going to get quite a bit worse over the next couple of months," he said. "Existing home sales reports have really been bad."

Home sales fell 8.6% in November, much more than expected, to an annualized rate of 4.49 million units according to the National Association of Realtors.

And although interest rates are currently extremely low- the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 5.14% during the week of December 24, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) -that's doing more to help people refinancing existing mortgages than it is to help new home buyers.

"Buyers still have to have a 20% down payment," said Newport, "and, in this environment, it can be hard to meet that criteria."

The latest Case-Shiller numbers provide more ammunition to Washington policy makers who want to do more to fix the housing mess, according to Jaret Seiberg, an analyst with the Stanford Group, the policy research firm.

"These data just add to the tremendous pressure on the president-elect and the Democrats to stimulate housing," he said. "That means more lucrative tax incentives and broad foreclosure prevention. All of this will likely be in the stimulus plan that Congress adopts in January."

Nicholas Retsinas, Director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies, agrees. "Housing problems are at the core of our economic problems," he said, "yet, of the government interventions made during 2008, few were focused on housing."

With a new administration and Congress in place next month, he expects to see a renewed interest in stabilizing the housing market. To top of page

Monday, December 29, 2008

Lehman chiefs destroyed $75bn of bank's value in hours

Bet I know who was on the other side of those 900,000 derivative contracts....

The bosses of Lehman Brothers destroyed as much as $75 billion (£51.3 billion) of the company's value by rushing the stricken investment bank into a surprise bankruptcy filing, an analysis by Lehman's liquidators has found.

Bryan Marsal, co-chief executive of Alvarez & Marsal, the company that is restructuring Lehman, described the surprise bankruptcy filing on September 15 as "an unconscionable waste of value" that robbed the bank's unsecured creditors of much of the $200 billion they are owed.

Mr Marsal's report estimates that between $50 billion and $75 billion of assets that could have been used to repay creditors were wasted because Richard Fuld, Lehman's chief executive, and his lieutenants did not have an orderly wind-down plan.

Alvarez & Marsal were hired by Lehman's board at 10.30pm on September 14, just hours before Lehman made the biggest bankruptcy filing in US history. The Government had refused to bail out the bank, and Lehman's subsequent collapse set off a panic in stock markets around the world from which investors are still to recover.

Mr Marsal said: "This filing, which was pretty much dictated to the board of directors at Lehman that weekend, occurred with no planning ... Had fundamental rules of crisis management been followed, much of the value that was lost by the unsecured creditrs would have been prevented."

Most of the loss of value occurred because the bankruptcy filing caused the bank to default on trading contracts with counterparties, immediately cancelling 900,000 separate derivatives contracts. These cancellations included contracts in which Lehman was owed money. If there had been on orderly unwinding of the contracts over several weeks, at least $50 billion could have been saved, the liquidators found.

Further value was destroyed when the unplanned bankruptcy forced down prices for Lehman's assets in a market that had already been artifically depressed by the shock collapse of the bank. This meant that the bank's trading and investment banking businesses were sold for less than $500 million although they had made about $4 billion in annual profits before the bankruptcy.

Unsecured creditors are expected to recover just $20 billion, or just 10 cents in every dollar they are owed, once the restructuring of the company is completed.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Ponzi Schemes

Madoff’s scheme played into the belief that wealth was not something to work for, but something to scheme for. It could be generated by playing your cards right, hooking into the right networks, and finding the right “investments.” The people with whom he dealt had, it turns out, some internal sense that there was something a little bit shady about the whole operation. But they dispensed with this sense when the fat checks arrived, and concluded that whatever was making this perpetual motion machine operate, it did work.

But listen: the government right now is using the same tactic to convince you that it is saving you from the recession. The whole scheme partakes of the same sense of denying reality that characterized Madoff’s scheme. And I’m not just talking about Social Security, which is almost an exact replica of the Ponzi version, except that at least Charles Ponzi didn’t force people to give him money. I’m speaking of something broader. The entire financial system that is propped up by the Treasury and the Fed is based on the same idea: that something out of nothing is possible.

So they will jail Madoff. Wall Street would flog him if it could. He is disgraced for all of history. But meanwhile, the likes of Bush, Bernanke, Paulson, Obama, and all the rest are still riding high, even though their scheme is far larger and more egregious.

Most of us like to believe that we wouldn’t have been tricked by Madoff. But are you being tricked by the elites who claim that they can conjure up a trillion dollars to stabilize our economy by clicking a few buttons on a computer screen? Most people are. Certainly the press seems to have bought it. Many people were outwitted by Madoff. Many more people are today being outwitted by the government and its central bank. And it will all end in disgrace and disaster, only on a far, far grander scale.

Regards,

Llewellyn H. Rockwell
for The Daily Reckoning

World Unravels

Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels

Gold is poised for a dramatic surge and could blast through $2,000 an ounce by the end of next year as central banks flood the world's monetary system with liquidity, according to an internal client note from the US bank Citigroup.

woman with gold bar - Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels
An employee of Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry K.K. displays a gold bar at the company's store in Tokyo Photo: Reuters

The bank said the damage caused by the financial excesses of the last quarter century was forcing the world's authorities to take steps that had never been tried before.

This gamble was likely to end in one of two extreme ways: with either a resurgence of inflation; or a downward spiral into depression, civil disorder, and possibly wars. Both outcomes will cause a rush for gold.

"They are throwing the kitchen sink at this," said Tom Fitzpatrick, the bank's chief technical strategist.

"The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done. When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed though into an inflation shock.

"Or it will not work because too much damage has already been done, and we will see continued financial deterioration, causing further economic deterioration, with the risk of a feedback loop. We don't think this is the more likely outcome, but as each week and month passes, there is a growing danger of vicious circle as confidence erodes," he said.

"This will lead to political instability. We are already seeing countries on the periphery of Europe under severe stress. Some leaders are now at record levels of unpopularity. There is a risk of domestic unrest, starting with strikes because people are feeling disenfranchised."

"What happens if there is a meltdown in a country like Pakistan, which is a nuclear power. People react when they have their backs to the wall. We're already seeing doubts emerge about the sovereign debts of developed AAA-rated countries, which is not something you can ignore," he said.

Gold traders are playing close attention to reports from Beijing that the China is thinking of boosting its gold reserves from 600 tonnes to nearer 4,000 tonnes to diversify away from paper currencies. "If true, this is a very material change," he said.

Mr Fitzpatrick said Britain had made a mistake selling off half its gold at the bottom of the market between 1999 to 2002. "People have started to question the value of government debt," he said.

Citigroup said the blast-off was likely to occur within two years, and possibly as soon as 2009. Gold was trading yesterday at $812 an ounce. It is well off its all-time peak of $1,030 in February but has held up much better than other commodities over the last few months – reverting to is historical role as a safe-haven store of value and a de facto currency.

Gold has tripled in value over the last seven years, vastly outperforming Wall Street and European bourses.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Intown Atlanta building boom goes bust


New homes that brought hope to areas such as Vine City, Pittsburg now sit abandoned

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

For Tanya Mitchell, hope came in the sound of buzzing saws and clanging hammers.

The noise and commotion of an intown building boom promised a new era of development, higher property values and improved prosperity for Mitchell’s Center Hill neighborhood and other communities, such as Carver Hills, Vine City, English Avenue and Riverside.

Enlarge this image

Hyosub Shin/hshin@ajc.com

Adair Park resident Derrick Duckworth, a real estate agent, stands amid abandoned houses in Atlanta’s Pittsburg area, which is near Adair Park.

Enlarge this image

Hyosub Shin/hshin@ajc.com

When scores of pseudo-Craftsman and faux Victorian homes were built in intown Atlanta, many hoped they would revitalize neighborhoods. Instead, scenes such as this one on Jones Avenue N.W. near Gun Club Park emerged.

Enlarge this image

Hyosub Shin/hshin@ajc.com

After the 1996 Olympics, renewed interest in intown living brought a wave of new construction for the first time in a generation. But many of the potentially revitalized neighborhoods, such as this one on Jones Avenue N.W. near Gun Club Park, are now left to deal with the fallout from those speculative projects.

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“It was enough to make you hopeful,” Mitchell said. “You had all this vacant land folks were putting new homes on. You were glad to see the new homes built.”

But now, the real estate collapse and credit crunch are unraveling much of that progress.

It’s a uniquely intown Atlanta story, where areas once blighted by crime found new life from renovation and construction of an unprecedented level of new infill housing — only to see those same houses fall into abandonment and disrepair as the market crumbled.

Today, hundreds of new or nearly new homes sit vacant, depressing property values in areas where new construction once promised so much hope.

Some are for sale at rock-bottom prices. Others are vacant crime magnets.

“What became of the [building boom] is what you see now,” said Atlanta City Councilman Ivory Young, whose southwest Atlanta district has a considerable number of abandoned new homes.

“Four or five years ago, they were the promise of hope. Now, they are vacant and abandoned structures. If they are not crack houses, they are soon-to-be crack houses.”

The dirty truth

Several southwest Atlanta communities have banded together to create a group called the Dirty Truth Campaign, which has cataloged more than 1,200 vacant homes in their neighborhoods.

Robert Welsh, who bought a house in Pittsburg with his brother 18 months ago, estimated that 70 percent of the vacant homes in his community were built in the past few years. His home, built in 2003, was surrounded by vacant, newly built homes. He’s helped find renters for two of them.

Conditions are so bad that Welsh said his brother was robbed at gunpoint and his car stolen before he moved in — as crews were in the house to install an alarm system.

“I knew then I had to get involved,” said Welsh. “I couldn’t just stick my head in the sand.”

Beginning in the 1970s and for more than 20 years, Atlanta’s population fell.

After the 1996 Olympics in the city, renewed interest in intown living brought a wave of new construction for the first time in a generation.

The new construction heralded a boom that saw Atlanta’s population climb 15 percent over the past eight years to about 520,000, U.S. census figures show.

Many new residents couldn’t afford established addresses, such as Morningside or Virginia-Highland, so builders found a market for much cheaper new homes in communities such as Vine City or Pittsburg.

City records show that in the past three years, Atlanta has issued more than 3,800 permits to build new single-family homes.

The top ZIP codes for new housing permits, 30331 and 30318, are both in northwest Atlanta. They include neighborhoods such as Guilford, the Cascade area, Riverside and Center Hill. The third, 30310, includes southwest Atlanta neighborhoods such as Pittsburg, Sylvan Hills and Adair Park.

Routinely, the pricey new homes take the shape of faux Victorians or pseudo-Craftsmans with two stories and large porches. They often tower over old, run-down ranch homes, causing taxes and property values to soar, and creating an obvious tension between the past and a possible future.

The building also brought new life, new wealth and new residents to communities that hadn’t seen investment in decades.

“It started out as a positive,” said Columbus Ward, 54, a lifetime resident of Peoplestown. “You were hoping all these new residents were going to help the neighborhood.”

Today, Ward looks around Peoplestown and can’t help but feel the boom has been a bust for his community.

“All these new houses are sitting there and adding to the crime,” Ward said. “People have broken in and vandalized them. They are an eyesore and haven for people dumping trash.”

No quick or simple fix

Getting all the recently built, empty homes occupied won’t be a quick or simple process.

Cal Wimberly, an Atlanta real estate agent, said there are so many nearly new homes on the market in northwest and southwest Atlanta and so few buyers that new homes now sell for half or less than their original price.

He recently sold a nearly new house in the Pittsburg community for $30,000. It had once been listed for six times as much, he said.

Empty new homes can be found across southwest Atlanta, which has seen values fall through the floor because of foreclosure, mortgage fraud and abandonment.

Southwest Atlanta includes ZIP code 30310, the top in Georgia for foreclosure filings.

Current listings show a house on Wech Street — a 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home advertised as in “move in condition” — available for $24,900.

Young, who lives in Vine City and represents the surrounding area on the Atlanta City Council, said the boom and bust proves Atlanta needs some kind of long-term vision for development in its more troubled areas if they are ever going to prosper.

In northwest Atlanta, Councilwoman Felicia Moore sees the changes to her district as a mixed bag.

She has Parkview and Adams Crossing, successful new communities with dozens of new homes and stable new residents populating the Riverside community. On the other hand, there are dozens of vacant new homes scattered about.

She describes an area near the intersection of Jones and East avenues as “Duplex Death Row” because of the collection of more than a dozen dilapidated, empty, newly built duplexes.

On this day, Moore stops to look at one empty house built into a steep hill. On either side sit two unfinished foundations, one because a house burned. “Who’s going to live there?” she asks.

Slow sales force Lindbergh condos to convert to apartments

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Another new condominium project, eon at Lindbergh, a 352-unit high-rise, is switching to apartments because of sluggish sales.

Although no sales had closed, about one-third of the units were under contract and those people will receive refunds, said S. Jerome Hagley, executive vice president and chief operating officer at the Dawson Co.

Dawson and the Lane Co. developed eon. “We will be converting the building to a rental at the beginning of the year,” Hagley said.

The developers tried financial incentives to spark interest, to no avail. The eon Web site still says buyers will get $10,000 and “this is an August offer only.”

Eon was relatively affordable, with prices beginning in the $180,000s. The sales center shut down about 60 days ago, Hagley said.

During the summer, Tivoli Properties converted Mezzo, a new 94-unit condo building on Peachtree Street, to apartments.

In its mid-year report, Haddow & Co., which researches condominium starts and sales, said completed unsold inventory in intown Atlanta is at a record high, up 58.6 percent since last year.

“Within the Buckhead submarket,” the report said, “two pockets account for most of the unsold inventory: Lindbergh and Brookhaven.”

Around the Lindbergh MARTA station a mini-city of sorts has sprung up with homes, businesses and offices.

But the area also is home to a stark reminder that the housing market has slumped: The skeleton of a condo building where a few floors were started before construction stopped. MCL Cos. of Chicago said Tuesday that project, called Skyline, remains on hold.

It’s the End of the Line for S.U.V.’s

December 24, 2008

JANESVILLE, Wis. — Even a federal bailout could not save three of the last remaining plants in the United States still making sport utility vehicles.

Reeling from its financial problems and a collapsing S.U.V. market, General Motors on Tuesday closed its factories in this city and in Moraine, Ohio, marking the passing of an era when big S.U.V.’s ruled the road. The moves followed the shutdown last Friday of Chrysler’s factory in Newark, Del., which produced full-size S.U.V.’s.

The last Chevrolet Tahoe rolled off the line here in Janesville shortly after 7 a.m. in the 90-year-old plant, which had built more than 3.7 million big S.U.V.’s since the early 1990s.

Most of the plant’s 1,100 remaining workers were not scheduled to work the final day, but many showed up for an emotional closing ceremony. Dan Doubleday, who had 22 years on the job, broke down in the plant’s snowy parking lot afterward.

“I was a fork lift driver,” he said, glancing at his watch through welling tears. “Until about seven minutes ago.”

At the Mocha Moment coffee shop around the corner, two co-workers, Michael Berberich and Lisa Gonzalez, exchanged Christmas presents just as they had most years since they were both hired in 1986.

“For a while we had it made,” Ms. Gonzalez said. “I just wish it would have lasted.”

The fate of the Janesville, Moraine, and Newark plants was sealed this spring, when rising gas prices suddenly made S.U.V.’s unpopular, and long before President Bush approved $17.4 billion in emergency loans last week to keep G.M. and Chrysler out of bankruptcy.

While the overall new vehicle market has dropped 16 percent so far this year, sales of big S.U.V.’s have plummeted 40 percent.

With consumers shifting rapidly to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars, G.M. no longer needed to produce big S.U.V.’s in Janesville as well as in a plant in Texas.

Still, some Janesville workers felt G.M. broke a pledge in its 2007 contract with the United Automobile Workers to keep the factory running.

“We didn’t deserve this,” said John Dohner Jr., shop chairman at U.A.W. Local 95. “We’ve all put a lot of hard work into trying to secure a future here.”

Shrinking market shares have forced G.M., Chrysler and the Ford Motor Company to close more than a dozen assembly plants and shed tens of thousands of workers in recent years. The moves have devastated communities from Georgia to New Jersey and from Michigan to Oklahoma.

Even so, G.M. and Chrysler are likely to close more manufacturing facilities as they overhaul their operations to meet conditions of the federal loans.

“The companies are moving very fast now to close plants, but it may be too little, too late,” said John Casesa, a principal in the Casesa Shapiro Group, a consulting firm. “They’re doing now what they should have done 15 or 20 years ago.”

G.M.’s Moraine plant was the last to build the midsize Chevrolet Blazers and GMC Envoys that were once among the best-selling vehicles in the country.

The Janesville factory built three of the biggest and most profitable vehicles in G.M.’s lineup, the Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban and GMC Yukon. The Chrysler plant in Newark also made big S.U.V.’s — the Dodge Durango and Chrysler Aspen.

Their closings leave the Big Three with only one factory each still devoted to making traditional big S.U.V.’s — Ford in Kentucky, G.M. in Texas, and Chrysler in Detroit.

The Janesville plant once employed more than 5,000 workers and turned out 20,000 Tahoes, Yukons and Suburbans each month. With its closing, residents worried about the future of this city of 64,000 people, about 75 miles southwest of Milwaukee.

“Janesville will lose a lot,” said Patti Homan, as she finished a strawberry-topped waffle at the nearby Eagle Inn restaurant. “I expect my electricity to go up, water rates to go up, property taxes to go up, and the value of my home to go down.”

Ms. Homan worked in the plant for 23 years, and her father, brother and husband all retired from the factory. “It’s generation after generation for so many families here,” she said.

The empty feelings in Janesville were echoed in Moraine, a suburb of Dayton and last week at the Chrysler plant in Newark.

More than 1,000 workers were laid off at the Moraine plant. Under terms of the U.A.W. contract for all its members, they and the workers in Janesville and Newark will collect unemployment checks and payments from G.M. that together equal about 80 percent of their take-home pay.

But those payments will only last about a year. And with the U.A.W. prepared to suspend its “jobs bank” program as a condition of the federal loans, there will be no safety net after that.

Some workers will have an opportunity to transfer to other plants. But with the industry contracting so quickly, there is little job security in making a move.

“I can’t risk transferring,” said David Williams, one of the remaining 1,100 workers at the Newark plant when it closed. “I don’t want to go 1,200 miles away to get laid off again.”

Mr. Williams installed a sunroof on the last Dodge Durango to come down the assembly line in Newark. Now he plans to take massage-therapy classes and pursue a new career far from the factory floor.

“Enough with the concrete,” he said. “It’s time for some carpet and climate control.”

On the last day for the Newark plant, 84-year-old Woody Bevans unlocked the weight room at the U.A.W. union hall and began brewing coffee for a handful of retirees who passed the time there.

A Texan who started work at the plant when it opened in 1952, Mr. Bevans recalled how the factory was first used to build tanks for the Korean War. He retired in 1983, but thought the plant would go on forever.

“We had hope right up until the last,” Mr. Bevans said. “We’re really going to feel it when it shuts down. There’s a big chain reaction, believe me.”

The University of Delaware is negotiating with Chrysler to buy the plant and redevelop the 270-acre site with academic buildings and a technology park.

After the plant closed, one of the workers, Merle Black, drove directly to a Delaware Department of Labor office and registered for job openings. He is hoping to become a heavy equipment operator, and possibly be involved in the demolition of the factory where he used to install airbag parts.

“If I can get in there to help take it apart, I don’t mind,” Mr. Black said. “That’s where I spent the last 19 years. That’s what I know.”

The closing of an auto plant draws a crowd, with some people somber and nostalgic and others defiant and energized.

Outside the Janesville plant on Tuesday, a few workers posed for pictures in front of the building while others said their goodbyes as they loaded gear in their snow-covered S.U.V.’s

One man had two small children with him on the last day. Another man wearing an orange ski mask waved a large American flag as departing workers drove by.

Many of the workers trudged over to a one-story, cinder-block building on the grounds of the factory, a bar called the Zoxx 411 Club. A sign said “customers only” and forbade reporters and media from entering.

Outside, a cluster of reporters, including a documentary film crew from Japan, tried to interview workers about the last days of the S.U.V. plant.

“It’s been a good ride, man,” said Frank Hereford, a body shop worker, as he left the plant with a microwave oven that heated up countless lunches during many of his 38 years with G.M. “Good people worked down here.”

Despite soaring losses, Beazer gives execs bonuses

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

After a year in which its losses soared 131 percent to more than $951 million, Beazer Homes doled out $1.4 million in bonuses to its top three executives.

Ian McCarthy, CEO of the struggling Atlanta-based builder, received a $600,000 bonus. McCarthy’s base pay is $1.2 million.

Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Michael Furlow was awarded $400,000, 50 percent of his base pay.

And Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Allan Merrill received $400,000. Merrill’s base pay is $600,000.

“These awards were appropriate in light of the importance of having met the performance targets and the need to continue to motivate our executives by tying compensation to individual performance,” Beazer says in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Merrill’s bonus includes $100,000 “in light of his efforts in completing a restatement of the company’s financial statements.” In May, Beazer released several periods of restated earnings after an internal investigation found “accounting errors and irregularities.”

The bonuses were for fiscal year 2008, which ended Sept. 30. During those 12 months, Beazer’s losses grew from $411.1 million to $951.9 million. Its stock price fell 27 percent to less than $6.

Low consumer confidence, falling prices, high levels of unsold homes and more restrictive lending are all hurting home sales, Beazer says. Completed sales contracts plummeted 38 percent compared to fiscal year 2007.

Analyst Vicki Bryan of Gimme Credit said in a newsletter this month Beazer may collapse.

“We don’t think the company can sustain itself through 2009 much less for another two to three years before the home-building sector might begin to recover,” Bryan writes. “Inventory at $1.5 billion no longer covers the $1.75 billion in debt, and this value is likely to drop further with additional impairment charges.”

She goes on to say: “Beazer’s cash is threatened by more than just its failing business. There could be expensive settlements as a result of federal and state investigations into Beazer’s mortgage lending practices, more than a year after it admitted to pressuring buyers into mortgages they couldn’t afford.

“In addition, Beazer could be held liable for losses suffered by buyers of an estimated $10 billion in loans originated by [the now defunct] Beazer Mortgage since 2000.”

The company is under investigation following complaints about an inordinate number of foreclosures in the Charlotte area.

Beazer said the latest bonuses were based primarily on the ability to meet targets for home closings, gross earnings and cash flow in a difficult market. Another factor was customer satisfaction.

The company is working to cut its expenses and inventory and boost its cash position. It ended the fourth quarter with $584.3 million, up from $454.3 million a year earlier.

Beazer now employs about 1,400 people after cutting its workforce by 45 percent, or 1,175 employees, in fiscal year 2008.

Existing home sales sink in South

MIAMI (AP) — Existing home sales in Southern states sank nearly 24 percent in November compared to the same month last year, while the median sales price fell nearly 11 percent to $154,500, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

The marked drop in sales in the South — as in the rest of the country — showed how job losses, Wall Street weakness and dwindling consumer confidence forced more people out of the housing market.

Without adjusting for seasonal factors, November sales dropped 17 percent nationwide from a year ago, while the median sales price slid 13 percent to $181,300.

In the South, 20 metro areas posted declining sales compared to the year-ago period, with 15 of those experiencing drops of more than 30 percent, according to the Associated Press-Re/Max Housing Report, also released Tuesday. The report analyzed all home sales recorded by all real estate agents, regardless of company affiliation, in those metropolitan statistical areas.

Meanwhile, the median home price declined in all 22 metro areas covered by the AP-Re/Max report.

Once again, the Florida cities of Miami, Tampa and Orlando had the most dramatic drops in median sales prices, which have been forced down by price competition surrounding foreclosure sales.

November sales in Orlando fell 13 percent compared to last year, but prices plunged 27 percent to $167,000, the AP-Re/Max report showed.

"Foreclosures used to be the exception," said Randy Martin, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker in Orlando. "Now, foreclosures are becoming the baseline for pricing the property. That's the tough part."

He said property values in the Orlando area have come down an average of 1 percent to 2 percent a month all year.

"What $200,000 buys you today, you would have paid $325,000 18 months ago," Martin said. "That's a pretty good snapshot of what's going on."

Meanwhile, two of the slowest markets in terms of sales were the North Carolina metro areas of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham.

Charlotte, one of the South's most important banking and commerce centers, saw existing home sales drop a whopping 52 percent compared to last November, while the median sales price fell nearly 13 percent to $150,000, the AP-Re/Max report showed.

In Raleigh-Durham, November sales were down 46 percent compared to last year, though prices were down just 4 percent to $193,000, the AP-Re/Max report showed. Raleigh-Durham, unlike Miami and Orlando, did not see dramatic price increases during the housing boom, and thus is not seeing a major fall in median sales prices.

John Wood, a real estate agent with Re/Max Partners in Cary, N.C., said waning consumer confidence among both buyers and sellers choked home sales in November, and the rest of the winter could see more of the same — at least before the Obama administration takes over in January.

Wood did note that activity picked up in December as average 30-year-fixed mortgage rates fell to near 5 percent, giving buyers an added incentive.

"We are seeing more people stirring," Wood said. "Even right here during Christmas week, we have people who have been sitting on the fence who say, `Hey, we want to take advantage of these rates.'"

Other large Southern metro areas also experienced slower sales, including Houston. Existing home sales fell 35 percent year-over-year, while the median sales price dropped almost 8 percent to $138,580, the AP-Re/Max report showed.

"These are some of the toughest economic times our country has ever experienced, and Houston consumers are understandably cautious as they absorb news about layoffs, declining oil prices and other negative financial reports," said Michael Levitin, chairman for the Houston Association of Realtors.

Levitin also said many people are choosing to rent rather than buy. In fact, single family home rentals increased 16 percent in November compared to the year before, and town house and condominium rentals were up nearly 3 percent from November of last year, the Realtors group reported.

To the north in Louisville, Ky., existing home sales in November plummeted 41 percent from the year before, while the median sales price fell 9 percent to $124,000, the AP-Re/Max report showed.

Jan Scholtz, president of the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors, said action by the federal government would be a good next step.

"If you don't improve the real estate market, the overall economy is not going to improve," Scholtz said. "You've got to start looking at fixing the real estate market nationally."

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Bush culpable as anybody else

White House Philosophy Stoked Mortgage Bonfire
Rich Addicks/Atlanta Journal-Constitution

THE BLUEPRINTS In June 2002, President Bush spoke in Atlanta to unveil a plan to increase minority homeownership.

Published: December 20, 2008

We can put light where there’s darkness, and hope where there’s despondency in this country. And part of it is working together as a nation to encourage folks to own their own home.” — President Bush, Oct. 15, 2002

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The Reckoning

Ownership Society

Articles in this series are exploring the causes of the financial crisis.

Previous Articles in the Series »
Larry Downing/Reuters

HANDS-OFF REGULATORS President Bush and his economic team, Ben S. Bernanke, left, Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Christopher Cox, right, in September.

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

VISION GONE AWRY In 2002, Masharn Wilson led Mr. Bush through Park Place South in Atlanta, where 10 percent of homes are now in foreclosure.

WASHINGTON — The global financial system was teetering on the edge of collapse when President Bush and his economics team huddled in the Roosevelt Room of the White House for a briefing that, in the words of one participant, “scared the hell out of everybody.”

It was Sept. 18. Lehman Brothers had just gone belly-up, overwhelmed by toxic mortgages. Bank of America had swallowed Merrill Lynch in a hastily arranged sale. Two days earlier, Mr. Bush had agreed to pump $85 billion into the failing insurance giant American International Group.

The president listened as Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, laid out the latest terrifying news: The credit markets, gripped by panic, had frozen overnight, and banks were refusing to lend money.

Then his Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., told him that to stave off disaster, he would have to sign off on the biggest government bailout in history.

Mr. Bush, according to several people in the room, paused for a single, stunned moment to take it all in.

“How,” he wondered aloud, “did we get here?”

Eight years after arriving in Washington vowing to spread the dream of homeownership, Mr. Bush is leaving office, as he himself said recently, “faced with the prospect of a global meltdown” with roots in the housing sector he so ardently championed.

There are plenty of culprits, like lenders who peddled easy credit, consumers who took on mortgages they could not afford and Wall Street chieftains who loaded up on mortgage-backed securities without regard to the risk.

But the story of how we got here is partly one of Mr. Bush’s own making, according to a review of his tenure that included interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials.

From his earliest days in office, Mr. Bush paired his belief that Americans do best when they own their own home with his conviction that markets do best when let alone.

He pushed hard to expand homeownership, especially among minorities, an initiative that dovetailed with his ambition to expand the Republican tent — and with the business interests of some of his biggest donors. But his housing policies and hands-off approach to regulation encouraged lax lending standards.

Mr. Bush did foresee the danger posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants. The president spent years pushing a recalcitrant Congress to toughen regulation of the companies, but was unwilling to compromise when his former Treasury secretary wanted to cut a deal. And the regulator Mr. Bush chose to oversee them — an old prep school buddy — pronounced the companies sound even as they headed toward insolvency.

As early as 2006, top advisers to Mr. Bush dismissed warnings from people inside and outside the White House that housing prices were inflated and that a foreclosure crisis was looming. And when the economy deteriorated, Mr. Bush and his team misdiagnosed the reasons and scope of the downturn; as recently as February, for example, Mr. Bush was still calling it a “rough patch.”

The result was a series of piecemeal policy prescriptions that lagged behind the escalating crisis.

“There is no question we did not recognize the severity of the problems,” said Al Hubbard, Mr. Bush’s former chief economics adviser, who left the White House in December 2007. “Had we, we would have attacked them.”

Looking back, Keith B. Hennessey, Mr. Bush’s current chief economics adviser, says he and his colleagues did the best they could “with the information we had at the time.” But Mr. Hennessey did say he regretted that the administration did not pay more heed to the dangers of easy lending practices. And both Mr. Paulson and his predecessor, John W. Snow, say the housing push went too far.

“The Bush administration took a lot of pride that homeownership had reached historic highs,” Mr. Snow said in an interview. “But what we forgot in the process was that it has to be done in the context of people being able to afford their house. We now realize there was a high cost.”

For much of the Bush presidency, the White House was preoccupied by terrorism and war; on the economic front, its pressing concerns were cutting taxes and privatizing Social Security. The housing market was a bright spot: ever-rising home values kept the economy humming, as owners drew down on their equity to buy consumer goods and pack their children off to college.

Lawrence B. Lindsay, Mr. Bush’s first chief economics adviser, said there was little impetus to raise alarms about the proliferation of easy credit that was helping Mr. Bush meet housing goals.

“No one wanted to stop that bubble,” Mr. Lindsay said. “It would have conflicted with the president’s own policies.”

Today, millions of Americans are facing foreclosure, homeownership rates are virtually no higher than when Mr. Bush took office, Fannie and Freddie are in a government conservatorship, and the bailout cost to taxpayers could run in the trillions.

As the economy has shed jobs — 533,000 last month alone — and his party has been punished by irate voters, the weakened president has granted his Treasury secretary extraordinary leeway in managing the crisis.

Never once, Mr. Paulson said in a recent interview, has Mr. Bush overruled him. “I’ve got a boss,” he explained, who “understands that when you’re dealing with something as unprecedented and fast-moving as this we need to have a different operating style.”

Mr. Paulson and other senior advisers to Mr. Bush say the administration has responded well to the turmoil, demonstrating flexibility under difficult circumstances. “There is not any playbook,” Mr. Paulson said.

The president declined to be interviewed for this article. But in recent weeks Mr. Bush has shared his views of how the nation came to the brink of economic disaster. He cites corporate greed and market excesses fueled by a flood of foreign cash — “Wall Street got drunk,” he has said — and the policies of past administrations. He blames Congress for failing to reform Fannie and Freddie. Last week, Fox News asked Mr. Bush if he was worried about being the Herbert Hoover of the 21st century.

“No,” Mr. Bush replied. “I will be known as somebody who saw a problem and put the chips on the table to prevent the economy from collapsing.”

But in private moments, aides say, the president is looking inward. During a recent ride aboard Marine One, the presidential helicopter, Mr. Bush sounded a reflective note.

“We absolutely wanted to increase homeownership,” Tony Fratto, his deputy press secretary, recalled him saying. “But we never wanted lenders to make bad decisions.”

A Policy Gone Awry

Darrin West could not believe it. The president of the United States was standing in his living room.

It was June 17, 2002, a day Mr. West recalls as “the highlight of my life.” Mr. Bush, in Atlanta to unveil a plan to increase the number of minority homeowners by 5.5 million, was touring Park Place South, a development of starter homes in a neighborhood once marked by blight and crime.

Mr. West had patrolled there as a police officer, and now he was the proud owner of a $130,000 town house, bought with an adjustable-rate mortgage and a $20,000 government loan as his down payment — just the sort of creative public-private financing Mr. Bush was promoting.

“Part of economic security,” Mr. Bush declared that day, “is owning your own home.”

A lot has changed since then. Mr. West, beset by personal problems, left Atlanta. Unable to sell his home for what he owed, he said, he gave it back to the bank last year. Like other communities across America, Park Place South has been hit with a foreclosure crisis affecting at least 10 percent of its 232 homes, according to Masharn Wilson, a developer who led Mr. Bush’s tour.

“I just don’t think what he envisioned was actually carried out,” she said.

Park Place South is, in microcosm, the story of a well-intentioned policy gone awry. Advocating homeownership is hardly novel; the Clinton administration did it, too. For Mr. Bush, it was part of his vision of an “ownership society,” in which Americans would rely less on the government for health care, retirement and shelter. It was also good politics, a way to court black and Hispanic voters.

But for much of Mr. Bush’s tenure, government statistics show, incomes for most families remained relatively stagnant while housing prices skyrocketed. That put homeownership increasingly out of reach for first-time buyers like Mr. West.

So Mr. Bush had to, in his words, “use the mighty muscle of the federal government” to meet his goal. He proposed affordable housing tax incentives. He insisted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac meet ambitious new goals for low-income lending.

Concerned that down payments were a barrier, Mr. Bush persuaded Congress to spend up to $200 million a year to help first-time buyers with down payments and closing costs.

And he pushed to allow first-time buyers to qualify for federally insured mortgages with no money down. Republican Congressional leaders and some housing advocates balked, arguing that homeowners with no stake in their investments would be more prone to walk away, as Mr. West did. Many economic experts, including some in the White House, now share that view.

The president also leaned on mortgage brokers and lenders to devise their own innovations. “Corporate America,” he said, “has a responsibility to work to make America a compassionate place.”

And corporate America, eyeing a lucrative market, delivered in ways Mr. Bush might not have expected, with a proliferation of too-good-to-be-true teaser rates and interest-only loans that were sold to investors in a loosely regulated environment.

“This administration made decisions that allowed the free market to operate as a barroom brawl instead of a prize fight,” said L. William Seidman, who advised Republican presidents and led the savings and loan bailout in the 1990s. “To make the market work well, you have to have a lot of rules.”

But Mr. Bush populated the financial system’s alphabet soup of oversight agencies with people who, like him, wanted fewer rules, not more.

Like Minds on Laissez-Faire

The president’s first chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission promised a “kinder, gentler” agency. The second was pushed out amid industry complaints that he was too aggressive. Under its current leader, the agency failed to police the catastrophic decisions that toppled the investment bank Bear Stearns and contributed to the current crisis, according to a recent inspector general’s report.

As for Mr. Bush’s banking regulators, they once brandished a chain saw over a 9,000-page pile of regulations as they promised to ease burdens on the industry. When states tried to use consumer protection laws to crack down on predatory lending, the comptroller of the currency blocked the effort, asserting that states had no authority over national banks.

The administration won that fight at the Supreme Court. But Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s attorney general, said, “They took 50 sheriffs off the beat at a time when lending was becoming the Wild West.”

The president did push rules aimed at forcing lenders to more clearly explain loan terms. But the White House shelved them in 2004, after industry-friendly members of Congress threatened to block confirmation of his new housing secretary.

In the 2004 election cycle, mortgage bankers and brokers poured nearly $847,000 into Mr. Bush’s re-election campaign, more than triple their contributions in 2000, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. The administration did not finalize the new rules until last month.

Among the Republican Party’s top 10 donors in 2004 was Roland Arnall. He founded Ameriquest, then the nation’s largest lender in the subprime market, which focuses on less creditworthy borrowers. In July 2005, the company agreed to set aside $325 million to settle allegations in 30 states that it had preyed on borrowers with hidden fees and ballooning payments. It was an early signal that deceptive lending practices, which would later set off a wave of foreclosures, were widespread.

Andrew H. Card Jr., Mr. Bush’s former chief of staff, said White House aides discussed Ameriquest’s troubles, though not what they might portend for the economy. Mr. Bush had just nominated Mr. Arnall as his ambassador to the Netherlands, and the White House was primarily concerned with making sure he would be confirmed.

“Maybe I was asleep at the switch,” Mr. Card said in an interview.

Brian Montgomery, the Federal Housing Administration commissioner, understood the significance. His agency insures home loans, traditionally for the same low-income minority borrowers Mr. Bush wanted to help. When he arrived in June 2005, he was shocked to find those customers had been lured away by the “fool’s gold” of subprime loans. The Ameriquest settlement, he said, reinforced his concern that the industry was exploiting borrowers.

In December 2005, Mr. Montgomery drafted a memo and brought it to the White House. “I don’t think this is what the president had in mind here,” he recalled telling Ryan Streeter, then the president’s chief housing policy analyst.

It was an opportunity to address the risky subprime lending practices head on. But that was never seriously discussed. More senior aides, like Karl Rove, Mr. Bush’s chief political strategist, were wary of overly regulating an industry that, Mr. Rove said in an interview, provided “a valuable service to people who could not otherwise get credit.” While he had some concerns about the industry’s practices, he said, “it did provide an opportunity for people, a lot of whom are still in their houses today.”

The White House pursued a narrower plan offered by Mr. Montgomery that would have allowed the F.H.A. to loosen standards so it could lure back subprime borrowers by insuring similar, but safer, loans. It passed the House but died in the Senate, where Republican senators feared that the agency would merely be mimicking the private sector’s risky practices — a view Mr. Rove said he shared.

Looking back at the episode, Mr. Montgomery broke down in tears. While he acknowledged that the bill did not get to the root of the problem, he said he would “go to my grave believing” that at least some homeowners might have been spared foreclosure.

Today, administration officials say it is fair to ask whether Mr. Bush’s ownership push backfired. Mr. Paulson said the administration, like others before it, “over-incented housing.” Mr. Hennessey put it this way: “I would not say too much emphasis on expanding homeownership. I would say not enough early focus on easy lending practices.”

‘We Told You So’

Armando Falcon Jr. was preparing to take on a couple of giants.

A soft-spoken Texan, Mr. Falcon ran the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, a tiny government agency that oversaw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two pillars of the American housing industry. In February 2003, he was finishing a blockbuster report that warned the pillars could crumble.

Created by Congress, Fannie and Freddie — called G.S.E.’s, for government-sponsored entities — bought trillions of dollars’ worth of mortgages to hold or sell to investors as guaranteed securities. The companies were also Washington powerhouses, stuffing lawmakers’ campaign coffers and hiring bare-knuckled lobbyists.

Mr. Falcon’s report outlined a worst-case situation in which Fannie and Freddie could default on debt, setting off “contagious illiquidity in the market” — in other words, a financial meltdown. He also raised red flags about the companies’ soaring use of derivatives, the complex financial instruments that economic experts now blame for spreading the housing collapse.

Today, the White House cites that report — and its subsequent effort to better regulate Fannie and Freddie — as evidence that it foresaw the crisis and tried to avert it. Bush officials recently wrote up a talking points memo headlined “G.S.E.’s — We Told You So.”

But the back story is more complicated. To begin with, on the day Mr. Falcon issued his report, the White House tried to fire him.

At the time, Fannie and Freddie were allies in the president’s quest to drive up homeownership rates; Franklin D. Raines, then Fannie’s chief executive, has fond memories of visiting Mr. Bush in the Oval Office and flying aboard Air Force One to a housing event. “They loved us,” he said.

So when Mr. Falcon refused to deep-six his report, Mr. Raines took his complaints to top Treasury officials and the White House. “I’m going to do what I need to do to defend my company and my position,” Mr. Raines told Mr. Falcon.

Days later, as Mr. Falcon was in New York preparing to deliver a speech about his findings, his cellphone rang. It was the White House personnel office, he said, telling him he was about to be unemployed.

His warnings were buried in the next day’s news coverage, trumped by the White House announcement that Mr. Bush would replace Mr. Falcon, a Democrat appointed by Bill Clinton, with Mark C. Brickell, a leader in the derivatives industry that Mr. Falcon’s report had flagged.

It was not until 2003, when Freddie became embroiled in an accounting scandal, that the White House took on the companies in earnest. Mr. Bush decided to quit the long-standing practice of rewarding supporters with high-paying appointments to the companies’ boards — “political plums,” in Mr. Rove’s words. He also withdrew Mr. Brickell’s nomination and threw his support behind Mr. Falcon, beginning an intense effort to give his little regulatory agency more power.

Mr. Falcon lacked explicit authority to limit the size of the companies’ mammoth investment portfolios, or tell them how much capital they needed to guard against losses. White House officials wanted that to change. They also wanted the power to put the companies into receivership, hoping that would end what Mr. Card, the former chief of staff, called “the myth of government backing,” which gave the companies a competitive edge because investors assumed the government would not let them fail.

By the spring of 2005 a deal with Congress seemed within reach, Mr. Snow, the former Treasury secretary, said in an interview.

Michael G. Oxley, an Ohio Republican and then-chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, had produced what Mr. Snow viewed as “a pretty darned good bill,” a watered-down version of what the president sought. But at the urging of Mr. Card and the White House economics team, the president decided to hold out for a tougher bill in the Senate.

Mr. Card said he feared that Mr. Snow was “more interested in the deal than the result.” When the bill passed the House, the president issued a statement opposing it, effectively killing any chance of compromise. Mr. Oxley was furious.

“The problem with those guys at the White House, they had all the answers and they didn’t think they had to listen to anyone, including the Treasury secretary,” Mr. Oxley said in a recent interview. “They were driving the ideological train. He was in the caboose, and they were in the engine room.”

Mr. Card and Mr. Hennessey said they had no regrets. They are convinced, Mr. Hennessey said, that the Oxley bill would have produced “the worst of all possible outcomes,” the illusion of reform without the substance.

Still, some former White House and Treasury officials continue to debate whether Mr. Bush’s all-or-nothing approach scuttled a measure that, while imperfect, might have given an aggressive regulator enough power to keep the companies from failing.

Mr. Snow, for one, calls Mr. Oxley “a hero,” adding, “He saw the need to move. It didn’t get done. And it’s too bad, because I think if it had, I think we could well have avoided a big contributor to the current crisis.”

Unheeded Warnings

Jason Thomas had a nagging feeling.

The New Century Financial Corporation, a huge subprime lender whose mortgages were bundled into securities sold around the world, was headed for bankruptcy in March 2007. Mr. Thomas, an economic analyst for President Bush, was responsible for determining whether it was a hint of things to come.

At 29, Mr. Thomas had followed a fast-track career path that took him from a Buffalo meatpacking plant, where he worked as a statistician, to the White House. He was seen as a whiz kid, “a brilliant guy,” his former boss, Mr. Hubbard, says.

As Mr. Thomas began digging into New Century’s failure that spring, he became fixated on a particular statistic, the rent-to-own ratio.

Typically, as home prices increase, rental costs rise proportionally. But Mr. Thomas sent charts to top White House and Treasury officials showing that the monthly cost of owning far outpaced the cost to rent. To Mr. Thomas, it was a sign that housing prices were wildly inflated and bound to plunge, a condition that could set off a foreclosure crisis as conventional and subprime borrowers with little equity found they owed more than their houses were worth.

It was not the Bush team’s first warning. The previous year, Mr. Lindsay, the former chief economics adviser, returned to the White House to tell his old colleagues that housing prices were headed for a crash. But housing values are hard to evaluate, and Mr. Lindsay had a reputation as a market pessimist, said Mr. Hubbard, adding, “I thought, ‘He’s always a bear.’ ”

In retrospect, Mr. Hubbard said, Mr. Lindsay was “absolutely right,” and Mr. Thomas’s charts “should have been a signal.”

Instead, the prevailing view at the White House was that the problems in the housing market were limited to subprime borrowers unable to make their payments as their adjustable mortgages reset to higher rates. That belief was shared by Mr. Bush’s new Treasury secretary, Mr. Paulson.

Mr. Paulson, a former chairman of the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs, had been given unusual power; he had accepted the job only after the president guaranteed him that Treasury, not the White House, would have the dominant role in shaping economic policy. That shift merely continued an imbalance of power that stifled robust policy debate, several former Bush aides say.

Throughout the spring of 2007, Mr. Paulson declared that “the housing market is at or near the bottom,” with the problem “largely contained.” That position underscored nearly every action the Bush administration took in the ensuing months as it offered one limited response after another.

By that August, the problems had spread beyond New Century. Credit was tightening, amid questions about how heavily banks were invested in securities linked to mortgages. Still, Mr. Bush predicted that the turmoil would resolve itself with a “soft landing.”

The plan Mr. Bush announced on Aug. 31 reflected that belief. Called “F.H.A. Secure,” it aimed to help about 80,000 homeowners refinance their loans. Mr. Montgomery, the housing commissioner, said that he knew the modest program was not enough — the White House later expanded the agency’s rescue role — and that he would be “flying the plane and fixing it at the same time.”

That fall, Representative Rahm Emanuel, a leading Democrat, former investment banker and now the incoming chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama, warned the White House it was not doing enough. He said he told Joshua B. Bolten, Mr. Bush’s chief of staff, and Mr. Paulson in a series of phone calls that the credit crisis would get “deep and serious” and that the only answer was big, internationally coordinated government intervention.

“You got to strangle this thing and suffocate it,” he recalled saying.

Instead, Mr. Bush developed Hope Now, a voluntary public-private partnership to help struggling homeowners refinance loans. And he worked with Congress to pass a stimulus package that sent taxpayers $150 billion in tax rebates.

In a speech to the Economic Club of New York in March 2008, he cautioned against Washington’s temptation “to say that anything short of a massive government intervention in the housing market amounts to inaction,” adding that government action could make it harder for the markets to recover.

Dominoes Start to Fall

Within days, Bear Sterns collapsed, prompting the Federal Reserve to engineer a hasty sale. Some economic experts, including Timothy F. Geithner, the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank (and Mr. Obama’s choice for Treasury secretary) feared that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be the next to fall.

Mr. Bush was still leaning on Congress to revamp the tiny agency that oversaw the two companies, and had acceded to Mr. Paulson’s request for the negotiating room that he had denied Mr. Snow. Still, there was no deal.

Over the previous two years, the White House had effectively set the agency adrift. Mr. Falcon left in 2005 and was replaced by a temporary director, who was in turn replaced by James B. Lockhart, a friend of Mr. Bush from their days at Andover, and a former deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration who had once run a software company.

On Mr. Lockhart’s watch, both Freddie and Fannie had plunged into the riskiest part of the market, gobbling up more than $400 billion in subprime and other alternative mortgages. With the companies on precarious footing, Mr. Geithner had been advocating that the administration seize them or take other steps to reassure the market that the government would back their debt, according to two people with direct knowledge of his views.

In an Oval Office meeting on March 17, however, Mr. Paulson barely mentioned the idea, according to several people present. He wanted to use the troubled companies to unlock the frozen credit market by allowing Fannie and Freddie to buy more mortgage-backed securities from overburdened banks. To that end, Mr. Lockhart’s office planned to lift restraints on the companies’ huge portfolios — a decision derided by former White House and Treasury officials who had worked so hard to limit them.

But Mr. Paulson told Mr. Bush the companies would shore themselves up later by raising more capital.

“Can they?” Mr. Bush asked.

“We’re hoping so,” the Treasury secretary replied.

That turned out to be incorrect, and did not surprise Mr. Thomas, the Bush economic adviser. Throughout that spring and summer, he warned the White House and Treasury that, in the stark words of one e-mail message, “Freddie Mac is in trouble.” And Mr. Lockhart, he charged, was allowing the company to cover up its insolvency with dubious accounting maneuvers.

But Mr. Lockhart continued to offer reassurances. In a July appearance on CNBC, he declared that the companies were well managed and “worsts were not coming to worst.” An infuriated Mr. Thomas sent a fresh round of e-mail messages accusing Mr. Lockhart of “pimping for the stock prices of the undercapitalized firms he regulates.”

Mr. Lockhart defended himself, insisting in an interview that he was aware of the companies’ vulnerabilities, but did not want to rattle markets.

“A regulator,” he said, “does not air dirty laundry in public.”

Soon afterward, the companies’ stocks lost half their value in a single day, prompting Congress to quickly give Mr. Paulson the power to spend $200 billion to prop them up and to finally pass Mr. Bush’s long-sought reform bill, but it was too late. In September, the government seized control of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

In an interview, Mr. Paulson said the administration had no justification to take over the companies any sooner. But Mr. Falcon disagreed: “They absolutely could have if they had thought there was a real danger.”

By Sept. 18, when Mr. Bush and his team had their fateful meeting in the Roosevelt Room after the failure of Lehman Brothers and the emergency rescue of A.I.G., Mr. Paulson was warning of an economic calamity greater than the Great Depression. Suddenly, historic government intervention seemed the only option. When Mr. Paulson spelled out what would become a $700 billion plan to rescue the nation’s banking system, the president did not hesitate.

“Is that enough?” Mr. Bush asked.

“It’s a lot,” the Treasury secretary recalled replying. “It will make a difference.” And in any event, he told Mr. Bush, “I don’t think we can get more.”

As the meeting wrapped up, a handful of aides retreated to the White House Situation Room to call Vice President Dick Cheney in Florida, where he was attending a fund-raiser. Mr. Cheney had long played a leading role in economic policy, though housing was not a primary interest, and like Mr. Bush he had a deep aversion to government intervention in the market. Nonetheless, he backed the bailout, convinced that too many Americans would suffer if Washington did nothing.

Mr. Bush typically darts out of such meetings quickly. But this time, he lingered, patting people on the back and trying to soothe his downcast staff. “During times of adversity, he bucks everybody up,” Mr. Paulson said.

It was not the end of the failures or government interventions; the administration has since stepped in to rescue Citigroup and, just last week, the Detroit automakers. With 31 days left in office, Mr. Bush says he will leave it to historians to analyze “what went right and what went wrong,” as he put it in a speech last week to the American Enterprise Institute.

Mr. Bush said he was too focused on the present to do much looking back.

“It turns out,” he said, “this isn’t one of the presidencies where you ride off into the sunset, you know, kind of waving goodbye.”

Kitty Bennett contributed reporting.

Friday, December 19, 2008

A $17.4 Billion, 3-Month Lifeline for Automakers

December 20, 2008

WASHINGTON — President Bush agreed to an emergency bailout of General Motors and Chrysler, giving them a few months to get their businesses in order, but left to President-elect Barack Obama the difficult political decision of ruling on their progress.

The plan pumps $13.4 billion by mid-January into the companies from the fund that Congress authorized to rescue the financial industry. But the two companies have until March 31 to produce a plan for long-term profitability, including concessions from unions, creditors, suppliers and dealers.

The bailout plan sets “targets” rather than concrete requirements about what those concessions may be, meaning that Mr. Obama and his advisers have enormous latitude to decide how to define long-term viability.

While Mr. Obama has broadly insisted that the auto makers radically increase the fuel efficiency of their fleets, reduce carbon emissions and save the maximum number of jobs possible, he will have just nine weeks after taking office to press for a detailed transformation of an industry whose problems have been building for three decades.

At a news conference in Chicago, Mr. Obama embraced the plan but said he had not had enough time to study the details. He never addressed the question of how he would turn a program designed as a short-term bridge loan into a long-term restructuring.

“I do want to emphasize to the Big Three automakers and their executives that the American people’s patience is running out, and that they should seize on this opportunity over the next several weeks and months to come up with a plan that is sustainable. And that means that they’re going to have to make some hard choices.”

He said it was his intention to preserve jobs “for years to come” and that he wanted to make sure “that it’s not just workers who are bearing the brunt of that restructure, that they’re not the ones who are taking all the hits.”

Yet as the economy falters and joblessness balloons, Mr. Obama will be under extreme political pressure not to be too tough on the industry.

Already, Ron Gettelfinger, the president of the United Automobile Workers union, said he was “pleased” that the administration acted on the loan requests, but said the President added “unfair conditions” that singled out blue-collar workers.

Mr. Gettelfinger said the union expects to appeal to Mr. Obama to alter the expectations for wage and benefit cuts. According to Treasury Department officials who drafted the wording, Mr. Obama would be free to change the requirements and loosen the standards, especially on how much workers will have to give up.

Mr. Bush announced the plan early Friday, before markets opened, and took no questions about its details. The day before, he conceded that he had been forced by the severity of the economic downturn to ignore many of the free-market principles he came to office embracing.

G.M. said it expects to draw on the first installment of its loans by Dec. 29. Soon after it pays suppliers and workers, the troubled automaker will begin implementing drastic downsizing plans, outlined to Congress earlier this month, that includes eliminating more than 30,000 jobs, shutting factories, shedding dealerships and determining the future of its Saab, Saturn and Pontiac brands.

In Detroit, a visibly relieved Rick Wagoner, G.M.’s chairman, told reporters that the loans will allow the automakers to pay their bills and prevent a financial crisis from spreading through the industry’s suppliers and dealers.

Mr. Wagoner, who has served as G.M.’s chief executive for eight years, added that he had no plans to step aside during the automaker’s difficult months ahead. “Do you think I would have gone through what I’ve gone through in the past two months, if I didn’t want to stay?”

His reaction was echoed at Chrysler. “We intend to be accountable for this loan, including meeting the specific requirements set forth by the government, and will continue to implement our plan for long-term viability,” Chrysler’s chairman, Robert Nardelli, said in an e-mail to employees.

Even before the March 31 deadline, it might fall to the Obama administration to persuade Congress to release the second $350 billion of the Treasury’s huge financial system stabilization program — a request that the Bush administration is reluctant to make because it will face angry criticism by lawmakers.

Without the release of those funds, $4 billion in additional loans for G.M. could not be made available in February.

Beyond the initial hurdles to provide all of the money, it will be left to the new president to make the tough judgments needed about the future of the industry. Are enough jobs being cut and factories being closed? Have the right product lines been consolidated? Are all of the stakeholders sufficiently on the same page to make the long-term viability plans workable? And how should financial viability be defined, anyway?

On paper, Mr. Obama will inherit a club to wield against the automakers and the unions: He can threaten to “call” the loans and require repayment in 30 days.

Yet as a practical matter, demanding immediate repayment would be enormously difficult to do, unless Mr. Obama chose to drive the two icons of American industrial strength into bankruptcy court during the first 70 days of his administration.

His aides know that he will come under tremendous pressure, including from the U.A.W., which supported his candidacy and helped fund his campaign. “What we’ve seen from the U.A.W. already forces Obama to make a decision over whether to throw the U.A.W. under the bus,” said Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclay’s Capital.

The bailout Mr. Bush announced is missing one major element: A “car czar” to administer the program, a key feature of the legislation that was defeated in the Senate last week. Until the end of Mr. Bush’s presidency, in just over a month, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. will play that role. But it is unclear what will happen after Mr. Obama is sworn in.

For now, his auto braintrust is mainly composed of Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, who was on the board for the Chrysler bailout in 1979; Austan Goolsbee, whose expertise at the University of Chicago has been the economics of industrial organizations; and Joshua Steiner, who is experienced about financial restructuring issues.

In addition, Lawrence H. Summers, who will head Mr. Obama’s National Economic Council, and others collect advice from academic, financial and restructuring experts. While many elements of the loan requirements are drawn from legislation that failed in Congress, there is one crucial difference between Mr. Bush’s plan and the one the House considered: it strips away a requirement that Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm that owns 80 percent of Chrysler, be held liable for any losses experienced by the taxpayers.

Instead, Cerberus on Friday said it would give the first $2 billion to the government if it ever sold Chrysler Financial, the company’s financing arm. While it has not asked for immediate government assistance, the Ford Motor Company said it welcomed the assistance to G.M. and Chrysler because of the fragile, interdependent nature of the industry and its vast network of suppliers.

Both G.M. and Chrysler outlined a turnaround program calling for deep cuts in operations and expenses in their original requests to Congress for government loans.

But the White House appears to be expecting more than conventional restructuring strategies. Mr. Bush called for the companies to extract major concessions from their bondholders, creditors, dealers, suppliers and the U.A.W.

Under the Bush administration plan, G.M. and Chrysler would each have immediate access to $4 billion upon the signing of the emergency loan agreements with the Treasury.

G.M. would then have access to an addition $5.4 billion on Jan. 16 and another $4 billion on Feb. 17 provided that Congress has released the remaining $350 billion for the Treasury’s financial rescue program.

The companies would be required to limit executive pay, eliminate “golden parachute” severance packages and sell their private corporate jets. While the loans are outstanding, the companies would be barred from paying shareholder dividends.

The loan deal also requires the companies to quickly reduce their huge debt obligations by two-thirds, mostly through debt-for-equity swaps, and to reach agreements on wage and benefit cuts with the unions by Dec. 31. According to the loan documents, average wages per hour and per employee must be “competitive with” the average wages per hour and per employee of Nissan, Toyota or Honda.

Bill Vlasic and Micheline Maynard contributed reporting from Detroit.